The so-called Islamic State, and their previous organizations Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (Syria), have sustained an insurgency in Iraq for over 16 years. After the collapse of most of its territorial control in 2017, (besides some hideouts in Anbar province) they are again focused on fighting an insurgency campaign. They have been depleted over the years by the efforts of the Iraqi security forces and the International coalition, so much so that in 2019, ISIS conducted only small raids, small scale attacks, assassinations/executions and abductions and IED attacks. This was a far cry from their capabilities circa 2013-16. However, in recent months their attacks in Iraq have increased, especially in the north of the country. Now, IS have released a long propaganda film, in this two-part article, we will examine the film and see what we can learn about their current capabilities and weapons. You can find the first part of this article examining the small arms seen in the video here.
Light Weapons
The use of light weapons is rarely shown in the video, the most commonly used light weapon are mortars which are used to shell the Iraqi Army and Shia Muslim gatherings. The types of mortars used are a Yugoslavian/Serbian M69B 81mm light mortar and three other unidentified mortars two ~80mm and one ~120mm, the source of the M69B is unknown but similar models were observed in Syria in use with opposition groups. For the attack with the M69B, the militants used Iranian made 81mm M91 mortar rounds, a possible source of these are PMU/PMF fighters who regularly sell their weapons on the black market. In one part of the video, they show four ~80mm mortar rounds which appeared to be not in a good condition indicating they were probably stored in a cache, rounds in similar conditions were previously seized by the Iraqi army from ISIS caches.
They used one Iranian-made 107mm rocket and at least 107mm rocket which appears to be of Chinese manufacture and another one was prepared to be launched but that wasn’t shown. The use of RPG-7 is scarce with one PG-7V warhead shown used against barracks of the Iraqi federal Police around the 20th April 2020 and other PG-7V used against unknown targets in Kirkuk. In the video four RPG-7 appear, two are used while two are not, all the rounds are PG-7V of probably Bulgarian or Soviet manufacture. One SPG-9 appears briefly which was probably modified to be shoulder-fired, which is a common modification made by ISIS. Only one heavy machine gun is seen, a Chinese 12.7×108mm W85, mounted on a pickup truck and used as technical.
Improvised Weapons
The most common means of attack appear to be IEDs (improvised explosive devices) made from explosives which were either homemade/craft-made by the militants or were harvested from unexploded explosives dropped by US/Iraqi Air forces and/or artillery on positions of the militants or other non-functional explosives, for example, mortar rounds which were damaged during storage. The majority of IED attacks were on roads targeting Iraqi security vehicles. But also one two-stage attack on Iraqi security forces, which first hit Iraqi security forces patrolling on foot and a second IED which targeted them and others when withdrawing. This is a dangerous capability that requires knowledge and local Intelligence both of which ISIS posses in Iraq. In a part of the video, they showed the manufacturing of containers for explosives charges used as IEDs, this design is common across Iraq and very similar IEDs have been seized by the Iraqi army from ISIS cells.
The video also shows ISIS operating a covert VBIED (Vehicle-borne improvised explosive device) targeting the Iraqi army in Anbar around the 17th January 2020. ISIS retains the dangerous capability of manufacturing S/VBIEDs (Suicide/Vehicle-borne improvised explosive device) which have been used to deadly effect as up-armoured SVBIEDs against the Iraqi army and as covert S/VBIED before the establishment of the “Caliphate” such as the 19th August 2009 Baghdad bombing which left 101 dead and over 500 injured. Although it is unlikely they can employ SVBIED to the degree of the Baghdad bombing it is a concern that they still possess the capability. The 107mm rockets used by ISIS were not conventionally shot from an MRL (multiple rocket launcher) but improvised from sandbags a common tactic of insurgents who lack MLR systems, although even the Chinese military uses similar techniques.
There were two types of suppressors seen in the footage, a small number of rifle suppressors on some M16A4 (mainly equipped with thermal scopes) but the majority appear on Glock pistols used for covert executions. Although from the wear it appears to be that they were not made recently they are probably capable of manufacturing new suppressors because they just need access to a workshop and either blueprints or experienced personnel – all of which ISIS has.
Captures
Although with the many attacks shown they display just three captured weapons: one from the Iraqi Federal Police and two from the Iraqi military. The first attack on the Iraqi Federal Police was committed by ISIS around the 23rd October 2019, in Baghdad. ISIS captured a Zastava M70AB2, two Bulgarian GH SMK-W smoke grenades, personal equipment and his ID. The second attack was around the 25th April 2020, in Makhmur Nineveh province on an Iraqi Military patrol where they captured an M16A4 5.56×45mm self-loading rifle from one soldier. The third attack occurred around the 3rd May 2020, in Diyala attacking the Iraqi army, they captured a 7.62×39mm AKM-pattern self-loading rifle and personal equipment of some Iraqi soldiers. Most of the captures which were released via their propaganda over 2019 were rather small, from attacks on small groups of Iraqi security forces.
Conclusion
ISIS in Iraq is not reduced to low-intensity, small scale insurgent operations but instead is well-equipped with squads engaging in significant actions. These squads contain at least some ISIS veterans and are capable of carrying out raids on checkpoints controlled by Iraqi security forces and targeting targets of value for ISIS. Such as targetting village Mukhtars (head of a village) and those claimed to be cooperating with the Iraqi security forces. In this video, we see clear signs of an insurgency still able to strike targets and perhaps the first signs of a possible resurgence. They retain important capabilities such as manufacturing IEDs and SVBIEDs. They have a worrying level of local Intelligence and make use of it. The attacks they are carrying out they clearly intend to disrupt local governance, try to weaken the control of the Iraqi security forces, which in some areas is already precarious, and attack the local economy by for example burning crops – a tactic significantly employed by ISIS last year in Iraq and Syria.
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